What’s in a number?

What’s in a number? Sometimes more than meets the eye. Very soon we will see the published report of the recent population study of the Jewish community of Metro Detroit. This report will show that the local Jewish population is 72,000 (in the year 2005), which is far less than the 96,000 counted in 1989.

The first thing we will be told is that the 1989 figure was incorrect and that the Jewish population hasn’t dropped as much as one might think. Nonetheless, there are more Jews leaving Metro Detroit each year than are moving in; we are an aging population; the birthrate among married couples is lower than necessary to replace the current generation.

So, yes, the Jewish population of Metro Detroit is on the decline. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, since this trend is in line with other phenomena. For example, the general population of Southeastern Michigan is in slight decline, as is the population of the Jews in the United States.

Therefore, let’s look beyond the most obvious number to discover some more significant facts:

The Intermarriage Rate in Metro Detroit is low. 16% of married couples include a non-Jewish spouse. This is far below the national average. Furthermore, the 16% of couples means that only 9% of the married Jews of Metro Detroit are married to a non-Jew. Call me if you don’t understand my math.

The Orthodox Community is growing. 11% of Jewish households are Orthodox (up from 7% in 1989). But even more significant, Orthodoxy represents 20% of the total Jewish population. This is because an Orthodox household contains about twice as many residents on average than a non-Orthodox home.

Community Affiliation is high. The local Jewish population is the national leader regarding synagogue membership (about 50% of households) and contributing to the Federation (more than $1000 per household annually). More than half of the Jewish population was born here, and more than 80% have lived her for at least 20 years. Those who stay really like it!

You will read, or have already heard, that the Conservative Movement’s numbers are down. The study will show a decline in 16 years from 38% of the population to 28%. Here, too, the number needs some explanation. The actual number of members of Conservative synagogues is about the same as it was 16 years ago. This number from the study doesn’t describe one’s synagogue membership (that answer is indicated elsewhere), but rather one’s self identification as a Jew.

In all likelihood, this drop in those self identifying as Conservative Jews comes from the unaffiliated. In the past, about half of the so called "Conservative Jews" were not actually synagogue members, but they might have said, "the synagogue I don’t belong to is Conservative." What the study shows is that fewer of them would say this today.

Another explanation comes from the study itself, which shows that for the same question about movement identity, nearly 20% of the population calls itself, "Just Jewish." I assume that many who used to answer "Conservative" now answer "Just Jewish." 

When I look at the numbers, and at the story behind the numbers--embracing of synagogue, tradition, community and "in-marriage"--I am convinced that the Conservative Movement continues to play an important role in the future of Detroit Jewry.  The values of our movement, and of our synagogue, speak to the core of the needs and desires of the overall Jewish community.

At the end of the day, we must also remember, it is not the total number of people that is truly important, but rather the quality of Jewish life that is provided to each and every member.